Blu Rays Lifespan

[Junior]

No, this is not the physical lifespan of one blu ray disc. I'm referring to the lifespan of the device in general. Compact discs was very famous when it was first made. Then just a couple of years, DVD's came and take over the reign of media storage. After that HD-DVD's came into life then now the Blu Rays. I'm thinking that maybe after 1 or 2 more years, blu ray will be taken over by another far better data storage.

[fidget]

I don't know, it looks like Blu-ray is what's going to be the media for a while, with a bunch of manufacturers going that way. I think HD dvd will go the way of Beta.

[aperio]

HD Dvd is dead in the water... Blu-Ray will have a limited life span like everything else. As I've stated before I am absolutely anticipating the day when all media is either a) downloaded directly to a storage device or b) all handled along the lines of on demand (but more like you buy a "lifetime" (so to speak) license to stream media directly to whatever device).

It still amazes me that we are actually purchasing physical media and using stand alone dvd players... that just still seems so outdated to me. I give blu-ray maybe a 8-10 year lifespan before the next great thing comes out and takes over? Anyone know how long ago DVDs 'officially' overtook VHS media? I'm starting to lose track but am guessing it was about 8 or 9 years ago now?

[CopyCat]

Originally Posted by aperio

HD Dvd is dead in the water... Blu-Ray will have a limited life span like everything else. As I've stated before I am absolutely anticipating the day when all media is either a) downloaded directly to a storage device or b) all handled along the lines of on demand (but more like you buy a "lifetime" (so to speak) license to stream media directly to whatever device).

It still amazes me that we are actually purchasing physical media and using stand alone dvd players... that just still seems so outdated to me. I give blu-ray maybe a 8-10 year lifespan before the next great thing comes out and takes over? Anyone know how long ago DVDs 'officially' overtook VHS media? I'm starting to lose track but am guessing it was about 8 or 9 years ago now?

I think your being very optimistic thinking that blu-ray will be around for another 8 to 10 years...
The next technologys are right around the corner, like HVD or Holographic Versatile Disc...
As I understand it, a consortium called Japan's Optware which includes Fuji Film and a number
of others are getting close to having this thing worked out and about ready to run... A HVD disc could
hold as much data as 200 standard DVDs (that's 1 Terrebyte) and it transfers data 40 times
faster than the present speed... There's also 3D optical data storage — one of the next-generation
technology expected to provide TB-capacity discs... Then there's LS-R — a "layer selection"
technology allowing the stacking of very large numbers of DVD-like data layers in a single disc
and there are many more...
There is just so much new technology out there right now that the industry can't keep up...
Its to the point now that its not what is out there, its how long is it going to
take for it to trickle down to us the consumer...

[aperio]

I guess my logic is this.... I assumed they would want all us poor saps to build up our blu-ray dvd libraries before coming out with the "next big thing"... I suppose it depends on whose calling the shots behind the scenes (I'm picturing the wizard in the wizard of oz here, mind you).

It's just me and my conspiracy theories again... but seriously, I'll be extremey shocked if they aren't around for at leeeeeast a few years. Will be interesting to see how it all works out.

[CopyCat]

Originally Posted by aperio

I guess my logic is this.... I assumed they would want all us poor saps to build up our blu-ray dvd libraries before coming out with the "next big thing"... I suppose it depends on whose calling the shots behind the scenes (I'm picturing the wizard in the wizard of oz here, mind you).

It's just me and my conspiracy theories again... but seriously, I'll be extremey shocked if they aren't around for at leeeeeast a few years. Will be interesting to see how it all works out.

[Junior]

The HVD that copycat is talking about really made me interested. Do you think it is good that I will put my investment on the HVD stocks? If it will be the next storage media of the future then I guess that would become expensive in the future, therefore it is better to buy it today when it is still cheap and on the research.

[AbigailD]

I am amazed by how under rated the life of CD is by those here! It's not like it has been the flash in the pan that I expect blu ray to be. CDs have been around since 1982-26 years!

Anyway, I really don't think that Blu ray is worth converting to at this point. I will wait and see-as long as things are available on DVD I see no need for the increased expense. I'll switch when I am forced to.

[fidget]

Abigail... I remember when we got our first CD player! We felt SOOO cool. I think that it's totally possible that blue ray will go the way of the mini disc or the laser disc.. you know, around for a couple years, but never catch on.

[Stubblecat]

*bump*

To be fair, laserdisc began around 1978, in its rather primitive form as 'DiscoVision'. Of note: The first title was Jaws.

That eventually morphed into the double-sided laserdisc in the early 1980s, which became the only choice for the home theater enthusiast (remembering that home theater was itself a niche market for middle-aged guys with way too much money to spend).

Laserdiscs were in production in the U.S. until 2000, and in Japan until 2001. Star Wars Episode 1 was released on LD before it ever showed up on DVD.

And laserdiscs were still produced for industrial use for a short time after that, as they were used as media storage for computer systems for years.

So that 'couple of years' was about 30.


As for Blu-Ray having legs: It remains to be seen. The 3 challenges that prevent downloadable media from gaining momentum at this point are;
1. Storage space - The lesser of the three challenges. Storage space is increasing exponentially for hard drives. A BD disc holds 50 GB of information, so even an iPod-type device would have to enter the race with at least a couple of terabytes.
2. Copyright - Once things get downloadey, the suits freak out. There would be a lot of lawyering happening.
3. Bandwidth - This is the biggest challenge. Downloading a 50 GB file takes a long time and eats up loads of bandwidth. No consumer wants to buy a new movie but have to wait while their computer spends 2 days downloading it.

To sum up: I'm not a betting man, but my call is BD discs will be a slowly growing market for the next few years. Once something like Star Wars hits BD it'll jump in popularity, but not to the extent of what we've seen with DVD.
If the issues I listed above get resolved and movie downloads become plausible (in the sense that you have a portable player and can access all the same types of features as you do with a traditional DVD player), then expect BD to die a quick death. Until then expect it to very slowly make its way to becoming the standard.